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本文在文献[1] (利用周期分析法研究观测资料中的干扰因素)的基础上,首先根据时间窗为一年观测资料的末尾数据,用泰劳级数的线性组合式,外推未来半个月的数据。这些数据称作预估值的近似值。然后,以扩大的时间窗解算契比雪夫系数,随后用契比雪夫系数计算未来半个月的数据,即为正式的预估值。 照此方法,对泰安台1982年石英倾斜仪全年资料作了逐段预估,所得一年的预估精度南北分量为0″.038,东西分量为0″.017。易门台倾斜仪1982年上半年的预估精度,南北分量为0″.054,东西分量为0″.039。太原台水管倾斜仪1983年第一季度的预估精度,南北分量为2.5μ,东西分量为3.1μ。并对1979年6月19日山西省介休5.1级地震前后的水管倾斜仪资料进行了检验,证实了震前有较为明显的异常。
Based on the literature [1] (using the periodic analysis method to study the interference factors in the observed data), based on the time window of the end of a year observation data, using the linear combination of the Taylor series, the extrapolation of the future half Months of data. These data are called approximate estimates. Then, calculating the Chebyshev coefficient with an extended time window and then using the Chebyshev coefficient to calculate the data for the next two months is the official estimate. According to this method, a section-by-section forecast of the annual data of Tai’an station quartz inclinometer made in 1982 was made. The forecast accuracy for the year obtained was 0 “.038 for north-south component and 0” for east-west component. The estimated accuracy of the easy-door tiltmeter in the first half of 1982 was 0 “.054 for the north-south component and 0” .039 for the east-west component. Taiyuan, Taiwan water pipe tilt meter first quarter of 1983, the accuracy of prediction, north-south component of 2.5μ, east-west component of 3.1μ. The water pipe tiltmeter data before and after the Jiexiu 5.1 earthquake in Shanxi Province on June 19, 1979 were tested to confirm the obvious anomalies before the earthquake.