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随着中国旅游服务贸易的逆差有不断扩大的趋势,而天津市在近几年通过不断地完善自己的旅游体系和旅游设施。2015年上半年天津市接待入境游客1592296人次,比2014年同期的1447381人次增长10%,共创造外汇收入167060.97万美元,比2014年同期的151602.08万美元增长10.2%。为了探究天津市入境旅游对第三产业的影响,以及它们之间是否存在双向影响关系,选取了1995-2014年度天津市入境旅游收入及第三产业增加值的时间序列数据,运用ADF检验、协整分析及Granger因果检验等万法对两者进行实证分析。
With the trade deficit in China’s tourism services has been expanding, and Tianjin in recent years through continuous improvement of their own tourism system and tourism facilities. In the first half of 2015, Tianjin received 1,592,296 inbound tourists, up 10% from 1,447,381 in the same period of 2014, generating a total of 1,670,609,700 U.S. dollars in foreign exchange earnings, an increase of 10.2% over the 1,516,208,800 U.S. dollars in the same period of 2014. In order to explore the impact of Tianjin’s inbound tourism on the tertiary industry and whether there is a two-way relationship between them, we select the time-series data of Tianjin’s inbound tourism revenue and the added value of the tertiary industry in 1995-2014. Using the ADF test, The whole analysis and the Granger causality test method of the two empirical analysis.