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采用我国29个省(市、区)2001~2010年面板数据,分析我国城镇化、产业结构与PM2.5之间的动态关系。面板单位根检验果显示各变量是I(0)过程;Pedroni和Kao协整检验表明变量之间存在协整关系;FMOLS回归发现,就我国总体来说,城镇化水平和第二产业比重的提高会增加PM2.5浓度。从区域来看,东部和中部城镇化水平的提高会加重雾霾污染问题,西部地区城镇化水平的提高反而会缓解雾霾污染问题。西部产业结构对PM2.5浓度的影响最大,其后依次为中部、东部。短期内,我国总体存在着从城镇化、第二产业比重到PM2.5的单向Granger原因,从城镇化到第二产业比重的双向Granger原因。东部与西部短期内的Granger因果关系与全国总体相同,中部地区城镇化和PM2.5不存在因果关系。长期内,我国总体及东、中、西部地区PM2.5、城镇化、产业结构之间存在着双向的Granger因果关系。存在误差修正机制,当系统偏离长期均衡时,三个变量在调整过程中能发挥重要作用,使其重新回到均衡状态。最后,提出我国总体要加快工业绿色转型,实行住宅产业化和绿色建筑、各区域实施有差异化的产业政策、全国总体要减缓城镇化进程,在综合考虑环境的基础上,对城镇发展进行合理的规划、根据不同区域特点推进新型城镇化进程、加强环境规制、防治雾霾等建议。
The panel data of 29 provinces (cities and districts) in China from 2001 to 2010 are used to analyze the dynamic relationship between urbanization, industrial structure and PM2.5 in our country. Panel unit root test results show that the variables are I (0) process; Pedroni and Kao co-integration test shows that there is a cointegration relationship between variables; FMOLS regression found that in our country as a whole, the level of urbanization and secondary industry increased Will increase PM2.5 concentration. From an area perspective, the improvement of the urbanization level in the eastern and central regions will aggravate the smog pollution problem, and the improvement of urbanization in the western region will instead ease the smog pollution problem. The industrial structure of the western region has the greatest impact on the concentration of PM2.5, followed by the central and eastern regions. In the short term, there is a one-way Granger cause from urbanization and the proportion of secondary industry to PM2.5 in our country, and a two-way Granger cause from urbanization to secondary industry. The Granger causality between eastern and western regions in the short term is the same as that of the whole country. There is no causal relationship between urbanization and PM2.5 in the central region. In the long term, there will be a two-way Granger causality between China’s overall economy and PM2.5, urbanization and industrial structure in the eastern, central and western regions. There is error correction mechanism. When the system deviates from long-term equilibrium, the three variables can play an important role in the adjustment process and return to the equilibrium state. Finally, it is proposed that our country should speed up industrial green transformation in general, implement industrialization of housing and green building, and implement differentiated industrial policies in all regions. The overall national economy should slow down the process of urbanization. On the basis of comprehensive consideration of the environment, According to the characteristics of different regions to promote the process of new urbanization, strengthening environmental regulation, prevention and control of haze and other recommendations.