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基于液化侧向变形实用统计模型和地震概率模型,建立了可以考虑地震随机特征和土体性质不确定性的液化侧向变形超越概率模型框架,通过实际案例初步探讨了模型的有效性,并将超越概率模型与现有统计模型的预测结果进行了对比。分析结果表明,若液化侧向变形的条件概率满足正态分布,标准差在5%到20%期望值范围内变化时,对位移超越概率影响不大;若满足对数正态分布,标准差对超越概率有一定影响。实用统计模型只能预测指定地震水平下的液化侧向变形值,而超越概率模型考虑了指定时间内所有可能地震的发生概率,可以同时预测变形值及发生概率,更加适合用于区域性的地震液化灾害评估。
Based on practical statistical models of liquefaction lateral deformation and seismic probabilistic models, a frame of liquefied lateral deformation overrun probability model which can consider the random characteristics of earthquakes and the uncertainty of soil properties is established. The validity of the model is discussed through practical examples. The transcendental probability model is compared with the forecasting results of the existing statistical models. The results show that if the conditional probability of liquefaction lateral deformation satisfies the normal distribution and the standard deviation changes within the expectation range of 5% to 20%, the displacement overrun probability will not be affected greatly. If the logarithmic normal distribution is satisfied, Surpassing probability has a certain impact. The practical statistical model only predicts the liquefaction lateral deformation at a given earthquake level, while the over-probability model takes into account the probabilities of all possible earthquakes within a given period of time, predicts the deformation values and the probabilities of occurrence simultaneously, and is more suitable for regional earthquakes Liquefaction hazard assessment.