论文部分内容阅读
作者指出,经济发展增加了一国发生民主化转变的可能性。他们的这一结论与Przeworski及其合作者的观点相抵触,后者认为,发展只能起到维持既存民主的作用,而无法促成民主化转变的发生。通过全面地处理样本选择及模型规范方面的问题,作者发现,经济增长的确导致了非民主国家向民主化方向转变的发生。他们指出,在十九世纪中叶到二战前这百余年时间里,经济增长对于民主化转变发生可能性的影响十分明显,甚至比它在维持民主稳定方面的作用更加显著。同时,他们指出,在未来的几十年里,一些取得了一定程度的经济发展但仍由独裁政权统治的国家,发生民主化的几率会随着它们的经济发展水平的提高而提高。例如,当一国人均收入达12000美元时,该国有望最快在三年之内实现民主化。
The author points out that economic development increases the possibility of democratization in one country. Their conclusion contradicts the view of Przeworski and his collaborators who argue that development can only play its role of preserving existing democracies and not contributing to the democratization shift. By fully addressing the issues of sample selection and model specifications, the authors found that economic growth did indeed lead to the democratization of non-democracies. They pointed out that in the one hundred years between the middle of the nineteenth century and pre-World War II, the impact of economic growth on the possibility of democratization has become more pronounced and even more significant than its role in maintaining democratic stability. At the same time, they pointed out that in the coming decades, some countries that have achieved some degree of economic development but are still ruled by authoritarian regimes will have more chances to democratize as their economic development levels rise. For example, when the per capita income of a country reaches 12,000 U.S. dollars, the country is expected to democratize within three years at the earliest.