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随着我国金融机构存贷款利率的放开,我国的利率市场化改革基本完成,利率水平的影响因素更加趋于市场化和复杂化。本文分析了短期和长期内我国市场化利率趋势变化的影响因素,其中,国内去金融杠杆和强监管政策以及美联储加息等国外不确定性因素导致我国短期内利率全线上扬,长期,受国内人口老龄化、经济增长率下行、地产周期及要素的分配趋势等因素影响,在人民币国际化背景下国内利率将逐渐与发达国家趋同,我国利率水平在长期内将趋于下降。
With the liberalization of deposit and lending rates in China’s financial institutions, the market-based interest rate reform in our country is basically completed and the factors affecting the interest rate tend to be more market-oriented and complicated. This paper analyzes the short-term and long-term changes in China’s market interest rates trend of the factors that affect the domestic financial leverage and strong regulatory policies and the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and other foreign uncertainties lead to the rise of short-term interest rates across the board, long-term, subject to the domestic population Aging, the economic growth rate down, the real estate cycle and the distribution of factors and other factors, under the background of internationalization of RMB, domestic interest rates will gradually converge with those of developed countries. Our interest rates will tend to decline in the long run.