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本文基于中部地区六省103个月度出口数据,采用Johansen协整检验和VECM实证分析了人民币实际有效汇率变化对中部地区出口的长期均衡影响与短期动态影响。中部地区出口与汇率变化等主要解释变量之间存在长期均衡关系,出口从短期波动到长期均衡存在反向修正机制,人民币汇率升值和波动抑制了出口增长,出口商品结构优化提升了出口竞争力,世界平均收入水平和市场价格显著影响出口贸易。提出了关注人民币汇率变化,合理规避汇率风险、优化出口商品结构,提升区域出口竞争力。
Based on 103 monthly export data of six provinces in Central China, this paper uses Johansen cointegration test and VECM to analyze the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on the export in the central region. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the main explanatory variables such as central bank export and exchange rate changes. There is a reverse correction mechanism for exports from short-term fluctuations to long-term equilibrium. Appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and fluctuations inhibit the growth of exports, and the optimization of export commodities structure enhances export competitiveness. The world average income level and market price significantly affect the export trade. Proposed to pay attention to the change of RMB exchange rate, reasonably avoid the exchange rate risk, optimize the structure of export commodities and enhance the regional export competitiveness.