综合运用前缘推进理论和经验回归方法 ,建立起一种聚合物驱产量和含水率变化规律的预测模型 .在应用该方法计算时 ,假定区块以给定的单位时间产液量生产 ,压力是不断变化的 ,即“定产求压” .应用建立的方法对大庆油田2 0个聚合物注入区块含水率和产油量变化规律进行了拟合和预测 ,结果表明 ,月产油量平均相对误差在 12 %以内 ,含水率平均相对误差在 3 %以内 ,累积产油量平均相对误差在 5 %以内 ;该方法预测精度较高 ,能够满足现场的需要 By using the theory of propulsion front and empirical regression method, a prediction model of polymer flooding production and water content is established.When the method is applied, it is assumed that the block is produced in a given unit time and the pressure Is constantly changing, that is, “fixed-production pressure.” Application of the established method of Daqing oil field 20 polymer injection block moisture content and oil production changes were fitted and predicted, the results show that the monthly oil production The average relative error is less than 12%, the average relative water content is less than 3%, and the average relative error of cumulative oil production is less than 5%. The method has higher prediction accuracy and can meet the needs of on-site