论文部分内容阅读
马克思主义历来重视未来研究,科学社会主义学说就是马克思主义关于人类社会的未来的学说。但是就近40多年在西方学术界发展起来的,那种用定性和定量方法来对社会的不同方面、不同范围、近期、中期、远期的未来进行预测的专门学科——未来学来说,又是马克思主义需要去开辟的一个新领域。发展马克思主义就包括建立一系列新的用马克思主义观点来指导研究的新学科这样一个任务。我国学者于光远、钱学森等都就建立马克思主义未来学问题发表过意见。当前世界形势发生新的剧烈变化,对人类社会和世界格局的未来发展又一次引起了热烈的讨论。在70年代初,丹尼尔·贝尔的《后工业社会的来临——对社会预测的一项探索》(1973年)和罗马俱乐部的第一个研究报告《增长的极限》(1972年)二书的出版,曾引起了世界学术界关于信息社会、全球性问题等人类的未来问题的热烈讨论。最近又有两本书出版,一是布热津斯基的《大失败——二十世纪共产主义的兴亡》(1989.4),二是尼克松的《1999,不战而
Marxism has always attached importance to future studies. The scientific socialism theory is the Marxist theory of the future of human society. However, in the past 40 years or so, a specialized discipline developed in western academia that qualitatively and quantitatively predicted the different aspects of society, different scopes, short-term, medium-term, and long-term future, It is a new area that Marxism needs to open up. The development of Marxism includes the task of establishing a series of new new disciplines that will direct the study from the Marxist point of view. Our scholar Yu Guangyuan, Qian Xuesen and others all expressed opinions on the issue of establishing Marxist futurology. The new and drastic changes in the current world situation have once again aroused heated discussions on the future development of human society and the world pattern. In the early 1970s, Daniel Bell's “The Advent of a Post-industrial Society - An Exploration of Social Prediction” (1973) and the first report of the Club of Rome “The Limits to Growth” (1972) Published, has aroused the world academic community on the information society, global issues such as the future of mankind heated discussion. Two more books have been published recently. One is Brzezinski's “great failure - the rise and fall of communism in the twentieth century” (1989.4) and the second is Nixon's 1999,