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一、引言 中国沿海地区经常受西太平洋台风的侵害。人员与财富的大量损失是由强台风所引起的海面异常升高所造成的。 台风暴潮所影响的地区包括中国的南海及东海。业务预报中常用的一类方法是对比法(或称相似法)。按照一定的标准,选出历史样本。例如,以台风登陆地区、路径、移速、台风中心最大气压、最大风速和6级大风圈半径等对台风增水有重要影响的因子为标准,选出与本次台风类似的历史样本。用样本中台风增水的实测资料,与本次台风各
I. Introduction Coastal areas of China are often infested by the typhoon in the western Pacific. The massive loss of people and wealth was caused by the unusually high sea level caused by the strong typhoon. The areas affected by the typhoon storm surge include China’s South China Sea and the East China Sea. A common method of business forecasting is the comparison method (or similar method). According to a certain standard, select the historical sample. For example, a historical sample similar to this typhoon is selected based on factors such as typhoon landing area, path, moving speed, typhoon center maximum pressure, maximum wind speed and 6-level gale radius, which have a significant impact on typhoon water increase. Typhoon with the sample of the measured data, and the typhoon each