伊拉克战场上的硝烟渐渐散去 ,但战后世界经济的走势仍然迷雾重重。本文试图分析伊拉克战争之后的世界经济走势。我们的基本判断是 :伊拉克战争无法刺激美国经济增长 ,估计今年美国经济的增长率大致在 2 .5 %以下。从长期来看 ,美元将仍然贬值。人民币升值的压力增加。石油价格近期保持平稳的可能性较大 ,但是长期来看石油价格的波动性仍然较大。战后美国和欧盟以及俄罗斯的利益冲突加剧 ,这可能会影响到世界经济秩序的演变。从近期的趋势来看 ,多哈回合面临搁浅的危险 ,美国可能会更多地强调双边贸易合作和区域贸易合作 ,而不是继续推进多边贸易合作。全球化处在相对低潮的阶段。发达国家的贸易保护主义抬头 ,主要国家的货币汇率频繁波动 ,各国之间的贸易摩擦和利益冲突将加剧 The smoke on the battlefield in Iraq has gradually dissipated, but the post-war world economic trends are still foggy. This article attempts to analyze the global economic trend after the Iraq war. Our basic judgment is: The Iraq war can not stimulate the U.S. economy. It is estimated that the U.S. economy will grow at a rate of roughly 2.5% this year. In the long run, the dollar will still depreciate. The pressure of RMB appreciation increased. Oil prices are more likely to remain stable in the near term, but oil price volatility will remain high over the long term. The conflicts of interest between the United States, the EU and Russia after the war have intensified, which may affect the evolution of the world economic order. From the recent trends, the Doha Round is at risk of running aground. The United States may place more emphasis on bilateral trade cooperation and regional trade cooperation instead of continuing to promote multilateral trade cooperation. Globalization is at a relatively low ebb. The trade protectionism in developed countries is on the rise. The exchange rates of major countries fluctuate frequently and the trade frictions and conflicts of interest between countries will intensify