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探讨将生存分析应用至专利维持研究的适用性和有效性。运用生存分析中的生存函数和cox分层回归模型,针对中国1985-2009年间信息技术领域发明专利数据,确定领域专利维持时间分布、比较不同国别申请人维持状况,并量化影响专利维持的风险因素。研究发现:信息技术领域专利的中位生存期约为10.5年,仅有接近1%的专利维持到届满;美国申请人专利维持情况最好,中国申请人的维持时长总体偏低,但有部分专利始终能够得到市场的认可;申请授权时间、发明人数量、申请人数量、申请书页数对专利维持的影响依次降低。
Explore the applicability and effectiveness of applying survival analysis to patent maintenance research. Using the survival function and cox hierarchical regression model in survival analysis, we determine patent distribution time in China from 1985 to 2009 and compare the maintenance status of different country applicants and quantify the risk of patent maintenance factor. The study found that the median survival time of patents in the field of information technology was about 10.5 years, with only about 1% of the patents maintained until the expiration; the patent of the U.S. applicants maintained the best while that of Chinese applicants was generally low, but some of them Patents can always be recognized by the market; the time of applying for authorization, the number of inventors, the number of applicants and the number of application pages have a decreasing impact on patent maintenance.