According to a lot of practical data in Liujialiang Mine and reliability theory and result of computer simulation, operation regularity of fully mechanized sublevel caving mining production system in the condition of gently inclined complicated geological structure and production shortcomings are found out and reliability of system and output of the working face are predicted finally. According to a lot of practical data in Liujialiang Mine and reliability theory and result of computer simulation, operation regularity of fully mechanized sublevel caving mining production system in the condition of gently inclined complicated geological structure and production shortcomings are found out and reliability of system and output of the working face are predicted finally.