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利用长三角1997～2009年的相关数据,运用面板VAR模型研究国际技术溢出、自主创新对服务业发展的影响。研究结果表明,从长期来看,长三角国际贸易技术溢出抑制服务业发展,而外商直接投资技术溢出、自主创新投入的增加和自主创新能力的提高促进服务业发展。从短期来看,长三角国际贸易技术溢出和自主创新能力的提高会抑制服务业发展,而外商直接投资技术溢出和自主创新投入的增加促进服务业发展。方差分解结果表明,长三角自主创新对服务业发展的影响程度大于国际技术溢出对服务业发展的影响程度。
Using the data from 1997 to 2009 in the Yangtze River Delta, the panel VAR model is used to study the impact of international technology spillovers and independent innovation on service development. The results show that in the long run, the technological spillover of international trade in the Yangtze River Delta hinders the development of service industry. However, the FDI technology spillover, the increase of independent innovation investment and the improvement of independent innovation promote the development of service industry. In the short term, the technological spillover of international trade in the Yangtze River Delta and the improvement of independent innovation capacity will restrain the development of the service sector. However, the technological outflow of foreign direct investment and the increase of independent innovation investment will promote the development of the service sector. The result of variance decomposition shows that the influence of independent innovation in the Yangtze River Delta on the development of service industry is greater than the impact of international technology spillover on the development of service industry.