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货币条件和实体经济的关系是影响中国和全球经济未来几个季度走势的关键。国内货币信用的量价背离,反映深层次的结构矛盾,美联储退市策略是全球流动性的最大不确定因素。国内:弃周期思维,寻结构出路今年以来,货币信用总量扩张快,但实际利率和汇率高。利率在不同部门间分化:房价上涨预期导致房地产实际利率为负,地方融资平台对利率不敏感,二者的融资需求限制了市场利率下行;而PPI通缩则推高实体企业的实际利率。这种结构矛盾既对实体经济造成挤
The relationship between monetary conditions and the real economy is the key to influencing the movements of China and the global economy in the coming quarters. The deviation of the volume and value of the domestic currency credit reflects the deep structural contradictions. The Fed delisting strategy is the biggest uncertainty in global liquidity. Domestic: abandoning the cycle of thinking, looking for a structural alternative Since this year, the total monetary credit expansion expanded rapidly, but the real interest rates and exchange rates high. Interest rates differentiate among different sectors: real estate prices are expected to lead to real real interest rates are negative, local financing platform is not sensitive to interest rates, the financing needs of both limit the market interest rates down; and PPI deflation push up the real interest rates of real enterprises. This structural contradiction not only squeezed the real economy