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经济周期波动与产业结构变动一直是经济学界长期关注的问题,它涉及到中观经济调整与宏观经济稳定的变动关系,对新常态下的中国经济转型发展具有深远的现实意义。本文希望通过对已有文献总结分析的基础上,从经济周期波动与产业结构变动的相关理论基础与传导机制出发,采用1952年至2015年的经济数据运格兰杰因果检验等方法对中国经济周期波动与产业结构的双向相关关系进行重点的实证研究,并以此给出切合实际的政策建议。
The fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure have always been the long-term concern of the economists. It involves the changing relationship between the adjustment of the medium-sized economy and the stability of the macro-economy and has far-reaching practical significance for the economic restructuring and development of China in the new normal. Based on the summarization and analysis of the existing literature, this paper, based on the theoretical basis and conduction mechanism of economic cycle fluctuations and industrial structure changes, adopts the method of Rankings of Rankings of Rankings from 1952 to 2015 to analyze the Chinese economy Cycle volatility and the two-way relationship between industrial structure Empirical Empirical Research, and to give realistic policy recommendations.