当前面临的挑战不是短期的外部冲击,而是长期的转型压力。“新常态”意味着经济增速从高速向中速的过渡,也意味着经济增长动力的切换。从国际经验来看,5%左右的增速对中国这样一个经济体而言是比较理想的“新常态”。当然,从过去35年的9.8%下滑到5%需要一个过程,目前中国就处在这样一个过程中。从过去出口、人口红利、投资、房地产转向新的动力,包括创新、消费和城镇化。2015年经济增速放缓是趋势,没有必要阻止。只要不发生系统性风险,经济增速的自然回落意味着经济增长质量的改善,少透支一些未来未必是一件坏事。 The current challenges are not short-term external shocks, but long-term transformation pressures. “New Normal ” means that the transition from high speed to medium speed of economic growth means the switch of economic growth. According to international experience, a growth rate of about 5% is an ideal “new normal” for an economy like China. Of course, a decline from 9.8% in the past 35 years to 5% requires a process where China is now in such a position. Exports from the past, the demographic dividend, investment, real estate turned to new impetus, including innovation, consumption and urbanization. 2015 economic slowdown is the trend, there is no need to stop. As long as there is no systemic risk, a natural ebb of economic growth means an improvement in the quality of economic growth, and less overdraft of some future may not necessarily be a bad thing.