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2008年前三季度中国的经济仍保持了较平稳的增长。进入第四季度,中国经济增长开始出现严重下滑苗头。如果不采取有效措施,2009年中国经济的基本面将面临发生根本性转变的风险,经济增长将严重下滑。但中国目前的经济形势较为复杂,短期因素与长期因素交织,国际因素与国内因素交织,既要保增长,又要保发展方式转变,宏观调控具有前所未有的复杂性。如果不能有效地处理好保增长与保发展方式转变这两者的关系,中国经济的严峻局面与国际经济形势相比,就可能持续更长时间,其危害性可能更大。
In the first three quarters of 2008, China’s economy maintained a relatively steady growth. In the fourth quarter, China’s economic growth began to show signs of serious downturn. If we do not take effective measures, the fundamentals of China’s economy in 2009 will face the risk of a fundamental shift in economic growth will be a serious decline. However, the current economic situation in China is rather complicated. Short-term factors and long-term factors are intertwined. International factors and domestic factors are intertwined. It is necessary to maintain growth while ensuring that the mode of development changes. Macro-control has unprecedented complexity. If the relationship between ensuring economic growth and changes in the mode of development can not be effectively handled, the grim situation of China’s economy may last longer than the international economic situation and its danger may be even greater.