按照天然气开发规划对产量预测的要求，本文对现有油气田产量预测模型的模拟和预测能力进行评价，从中选择适宜四川盆地不同类型气藏动态特点的３种预测模型，并给出这些模型的应用条件，还对Ａｒｐｓ双曲递减方程数值求解方法做了部分改进。预测结果与定性分析基本相符，此模型已在四川石油管理局天然气开发规划预研究中得到应用。 According to the requirements of natural gas development planning for production prediction, this paper evaluates the simulation and prediction ability of the existing oil and gas field production prediction models, selects three kinds of prediction models suitable for the dynamic characteristics of different types of gas pools in Sichuan Basin, and gives the application of these models Conditions, but also on the Arps hyperbolic regression equation numerical solution made some improvements. The prediction result basically agrees with the qualitative analysis. This model has been applied in the pre-study of natural gas development plan of Sichuan Petroleum Administration.