我国城市医疗卫生服务利用分析与预测同济医科大学公共卫生学院（４３００３０）彭，阳琳卫生部卫生统计信息中心胡建平分析预测研究是管理科学的重要组成部分，而预测是实施管理的基础。目前研究某一地区医疗需求和卫生服务利用状况的报道较多，但对城市尤其从宏观角度对... Analysis and Prediction of the Utilization of Urban Health Care Services in China. School of Public Health, Tongji Medical University (430030) Peng, Yang Lin Health Statistics and Information Center of Health Ministry Hu Jianping Analysis and prediction research is an important part of management science, and prediction is the basis for implementation management. At present, there are many reports on the medical needs of a certain region and the utilization of health services. However, it is particularly true for cities from a macro perspective.