在全球货币政策转向、政治风险日趋降温的背景下,随着越来越多的投资者从黄金市场抽身,黄金价格在短中期内将面临较大的下行风险。今年以来,国际金价已经在1200到1300美元的宽区间内走了三个来回(见附图),其波动的原因值得探讨。从基本面来看,黄金供过于求的基本面情况并没有显著变化,对金价走势的影响较弱;相比之下,全球货币政策走向 Against the background of global monetary policy shift and political risk cooling, as more and more investors withdraw from the gold market, the gold price will face greater downside risks in the short to medium term. Since the beginning of this year, the international price of gold has gone back and forth within the wide range of 1,200 to 1,300 U.S. dollars (see the attached figure). The reason for this fluctuation is worth exploring. From a fundamental perspective, there is no significant change in the fundamentals of gold oversupply, which has a weaker effect on gold price movements. In contrast, the trend of global monetary policy