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在防洪系统的设计中,采用相应于指定风险的洪水过程线作为系统将遭遇到的洪水。一般,洪水是以群的形式发生并形成多峰的过程线。当防洪系统的水库、堤防遭遇到多峰洪水过程(洪水群)时,尽管多峰过程内的每一个峰都小于单峰过程的峰,多峰过程可能造成比单峰过程更为严重的后果。这是因为,虽然洪水群中的早期洪水对系统并不危险,但它们可将水库蓄至临界水位,以至后来的洪水可以直接超过水库从而危及下游。由于洪水波经过河道时河槽的调蓄作用,故对水库下游的防洪堤和防洪墙也可作类似的论证。由于系统的蓄水,所以需要描述的不仅有洪峰流量的随机性,还有整个洪水过程形状的随机性。本文对洪水现实的概率描述将不再是依据一个单一的洪峰流量,而主要以图解方式介绍一般多峰时间连续洪水过程线整个形状的若干新的随机模型。首先介绍多站降水过程的点随机模型,再用降水作为洪水的驱动过程,介绍包括洪水起始时间、峰现时间和洪峰流量的三维点随机过程(3—DPP)。然后讨论作为上述三维点随机过程的推广——时间连续洪水现实的随机模型。
In the design of a flood protection system, a flood process line corresponding to a given risk is used as a flood to be encountered by the system. In general, floods occur as a group and form a multi-peak process. When reservoirs and embankments of a flood control system encounter a multi-peak flood process (flood group), the multi-peak process may result in more severe consequences than the unimodal process, although each peak in the multi-peak process is smaller than the peak of the unimodal process . This is because, although early floods in a flood group are not dangerous to the system, they can hold a reservoir to a critical level so that subsequent floods can directly exceed reservoirs and threaten the downstream. Due to the regulation and storage of flumes when the flood waves pass through the riverway, similar proofs can be made for the flood levees and flood walls downstream of the reservoir. Due to the impoundment of the system, there is a need to describe not only the randomness of peak flow but also the randomness of the shape of the entire flood process. This paper describes the probability of flood reality will no longer be based on a single peak flow, but mainly to graphically introduce the general multi-peak continuous flood process of the entire shape of a number of new stochastic models. Firstly, the point stochastic model of multi-station precipitation process is introduced. Then the precipitation is used as the driving process of flood. The three-dimensional point random process (3-DPP) including flood start time, peak time and flood peak flow is introduced. Then we discuss the stochastic model as a generalization of the above three-dimensional stochastic process - the reality of continuous floods over time.