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石油工程项目受多个风险因素制约,通过对不同风险构建效用函数,将效用值作为风险评价的指标参数,体现了决策者风险承受能力的差异和风险偏好的不同。针对各类风险效用指标彼此间的关联,根据主成分分析法原理,运用线性变换将相关评价指标转换成独立的指标参数,并以此确定新形成独立指标的权重,由此构造出一种更合理的灰色关联度评价方法。最后应用上述方法和模拟技术,将经过多次模拟后的概率分布数据作为项目风险评价的结果,可以为项目投资决策提供更加科学、合理的依据。
The petroleum engineering project is restricted by a number of risk factors. By constructing the utility function for different risks and using the utility value as the index parameter of the risk assessment, the difference between the risk tolerance and the risk preference of the decision maker is reflected. According to the principle of principal component analysis, linear correlation is used to convert the relevant evaluation index into independent index parameters and to determine the weight of newly formed independent index, so as to construct a more Reasonable Gray Relational Degree Evaluation Method. Finally, applying the above methods and simulation techniques, taking the probability distribution data after multiple simulations as the result of project risk assessment can provide a more scientific and reasonable basis for project investment decision-making.