论文部分内容阅读
本文对洪水频率分析若干主要问题作了历史总结。其中包括概率分布的形式,特异值的发生与性质,可能最大洪水的作用,估计误差的不可避免性,以及区域化方法和贝叶斯方法的使用。同时也概述了美国联邦的洪水频率分析指南(水资源委员会17号公报)。美国参加这次会议的论文可分为七组,涉及在历史回顾中提到的大多数主要问题。这七组论文的内容如下:控制观察和量测的物理因素和水力因素(六篇);确定流量时的误差的定量分析(二篇);特异值的检测和影响(一篇);历史洪水的统计处理(二篇);区域化(二篇);降雨径流关系的确定性描述(六篇);降雨径流的概率模型(三篇)。
This paper makes a historical summary of some major issues in flood frequency analysis. These include the form of probability distributions, the occurrence and nature of specific values, the role of the maximum flood possible, the inevitable estimation of errors, and the use of regionalization methods and Bayesian methods. It also outlines the guidelines for the analysis of flood frequency in the United States (Water Commission 17 Communiqué). The papers that the United States attended at the conference can be divided into seven groups, covering most of the major issues mentioned in the historical review. The contents of these seven groups of papers are as follows: physical factors and hydraulic factors that control the observation and measurement (six articles); quantitative analysis of errors in the determination of flow (two articles); detection and impact of specific values (one article); historical floods (Two); regionalization (two); deterministic description of the relationship between rainfall runoff (six articles); probability model of rainfall runoff (three articles).