论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨大气污染物浓度对北京市门头沟区煤工尘肺患者住院死亡率的影响。方法收集2013年4月—2014年5月期间北京市门头沟区两家医院的煤工尘肺患者的每月死亡人数和每月出院人次数,以及该期间内大气污染物PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2的浓度(μg/m3)。采用Eviews 8软件,以煤工尘肺患者I-HMR为因变量,大气污染物浓度为自变量拟合分布滞后模型,确定滞后期和阿尔蒙系数,根据R2、AIC、SC以及F检验的结果确定最优模型。结果研究期间内,煤工尘肺患者的住院死亡率在不同月份呈现明显的波动,4种大气污染物(PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2)的浓度的变化趋势基本保持一致,住院死亡率及污染物浓度没有明显的上升或下降趋势。单因素分析发现,当污染物为PM10、SO2、NO2时所构建的分布滞后模型无统计学意义;当污染物为PM2.5时滞后期为9 a,模型有统计学意义。多因素分析发现,构建PM2.5、SO2、NO2与住院死亡率的模型有统计学意义,PM2.5滞后期为7 a。结论 PM2.5对煤工尘肺患者的住院死亡率有独立和联合作用,且存在一定的滞后效应。
Objective To investigate the influence of air pollutant concentration on hospital mortality in coal miners with pneumoconiosis in Mentougou District of Beijing. Methods The monthly death toll and number of monthly discharges from coal miners and pneumoconiosis patients in two hospitals in Mentougou District of Beijing from April 2013 to May 2014 were collected, and the air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, SO2 , NO2 concentration (μg / m3). Using Eviews 8 software, I-HMR was taken as the dependent variable and the air pollutant concentration as the independent variable to fit the distribution lag model. The lag phase and Almond coefficient were determined, and the results were determined according to R2, AIC, SC and F test Optimal model. Results During the study period, the in-hospital mortality rate of coal workers’ pneumoconiosis fluctuated significantly in different months. The trend of the changes of the concentrations of the four air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2) remained basically the same. The in-hospital mortality rate and There is no obvious increase or decrease of pollutant concentration. Univariate analysis showed that when the pollutants were PM10, SO2 and NO2, the distribution lag model was not statistically significant. When the pollutant was PM2.5, the lag phase was 9 a, the model was statistically significant. Multivariate analysis found that the model of building PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and in-hospital mortality was statistically significant, PM2.5 lag period of 7 a. Conclusion PM2.5 has an independent and joint effect on the in-hospital mortality rate of coal workers with pneumoconiosis, and there is a certain lag effect.