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本文以塔里木河流域的10个水文站1961~2000年观测资料为基础,对塔里木河流域的径流变化及其对下游生态环境影响进行了分析。分析得出:(1)20世纪60年代以来,塔里木河各源流的出山口径流量增加23.82×108m3,增幅达14.97%,但是,能汇入塔里木河干流的水量并没有增加,而且比60年代减少了8.8×108m3,减幅达17.41%。(2)近40年以来,由于塔里木河干流上中游地区的耕地面积急剧扩大,用水量剧增,使下游的来水量比60年代减少7.72×108m3,减幅达76.13%。(3)由于塔里木河上中游耗水量的增加,塔里木河下游来水量逐年减少以至断流,由此造成下游生态环境出现较大的变化,主要表现有:河水盐化严重,灾害性天气出现的次数大幅增加,河道断流,地下水位下降,天然植被严重衰败,沙漠化过程加重。(4)实施塔里木河流域水资源的统一管理,统筹分配上、中、下游水量,调整大农业生产方向,完善流域节水改造配套工程,发展节水型农业,是塔里木河下游受损生态环境恢复与重建的关键。
Based on the observation data of 10 hydrological stations in the Tarim Basin from 1961 to 2000, this paper analyzes the runoff variation in the Tarim River Basin and its impact on the downstream ecological environment. The analysis shows that: (1) Since the 1960s, the flow of outflow from each source of the Tarim River increased by 23.82 × 108m3, an increase of 14.97%. However, the amount of water that could be imported into the mainstream of the Tarim River did not increase and was lower than that of the 1960s 8.8 × 108m3, a decrease of 17.41%. (2) Since the area of arable land in the upper and middle reaches of the mainstream of the Tarim River has expanded rapidly in recent 40 years, the water consumption has drastically increased, reducing the water inflow downstream by 7.72 × 108m3 from the 1960s by 76.13%. (3) Due to the increase of water consumption in the upper and middle reaches of the Tarim River, the inflow of water in the lower reaches of the Tarim River has been reduced year by year and even stopped. As a result, great changes have taken place in the downstream ecological environment. The main features are: serious salinization of rivers, number of severe weather occurrences A substantial increase in river flow, groundwater levels decline, the natural decline of vegetation, desertification aggravated. (4) Implementation of unified management of water resources in the Tarim River Basin, overall distribution of water volume in upper, middle and lower reaches, adjustment of large-scale agricultural production, improvement of supporting projects for water-saving in river basins, and development of water-saving agriculture are the damaged ecological environments in the lower reaches of the Tarim River The key to recovery and reconstruction.