根据田间三化螟幼虫的化蛹率,参考天气预报,加相应温度下的蛹历期,预测发蛾期,是目前三化螟发生期近期预测的常用方法。在本地,除幼虫滞育比例很高的第三代以外,对其他世代发蛾期的预测都适用。但据我站1965-1980年田间幼虫化蛹高峰期和实际发蛾高峰期资料检验,这一方法的预测结果,比实际发蛾高峰期显著偏迟。检验方法是以剥查化蛹高峰 According to the field pupation rate of rice borer larvae, reference to weather forecast, plus the corresponding temperature of the pupal period, the prediction of hair moths, is the current occurrence of rice stem borer recently predicted common method. Locally, except for the third generation with high larval diapause rates, predictions for other generations of hair moths are applicable. However, based on the data from the peak of pupae and actual peak moths in the field from 1965 to 1980 in our station, the prediction results of this method are significantly delayed than those of the actual moths. The test method is to peel pupa peak