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本文基于中国工业行业1985-2012年面板数据,运用新近发展的时间可替代DEA模型测度了在不同节能减排目标约束下,工业行业节能减排对经济增长的影响和工业行业各年度的最优能源消费量和最优碳排放量,并在此基础上分析了影响潜在工业行业经济增长率的因素。结论表明:由于中国工业大部分行业环境技术效率低下,可通过提升环境技术效率来削减节能减排对经济增长的潜在负面影响,大部分行业存在着环境波特假说所阐释的节能减排和经济增长之间的双赢模式。环境技术效率越高、能源强度和碳排放强度越低、资本劳动比越低的行业在面临节能减排约束时越容易遭受更多的经济增长损失,因此政策制定者在确定节能减排目标时应根据不同行业的情况分别确定不同的目标。
Based on the panel data of China’s industrial sector from 1985 to 2012, this paper uses the newly developed time to replace the DEA model to measure the impact of energy-saving and emission-reduction in industrial sectors on economic growth and the optimization of various years of the industrial industry under the constraints of different energy-saving and emission reduction targets. Energy consumption and optimal carbon emissions, and on this basis, the factors that influence the economic growth rate of potential industrial industries are analyzed. The conclusion shows that due to the low environmental and technical efficiency of most industries in China’s industries, the potential negative impact of energy conservation and emission reduction on economic growth can be reduced by improving the efficiency of environmental technologies. In most industries, there is the energy-saving emission reduction and economy explained by the Environmental Porter Hypothesis. A win-win model between growth. The industries with higher environmental and technological efficiency, lower energy intensity and carbon emission intensity, and lower capital-to-labor ratios are more vulnerable to more economic growth losses when faced with energy-saving and emission-reduction constraints. Therefore, policy makers determine energy conservation and emission reduction targets. Different targets should be determined according to different industries.