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运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及相关预测方法,界定了中国西南地区某些地震区的强震孕育周期,分析了这些地震区未来地震趋势.结果表明:得荣地震区与小江地震区当前孕育周期还未结束,未来分别有大震与巨震事件发生.鲜水河地震区与中缅边境地震区1已经历一个完整的孕育周期,未来分别有大(巨)震与强震事件发生.昭通地震区已经历一个完整的孕育周期,若2014年鲁甸地震实际震级不小于MS6.1级,则其为第二孕育周期的主震事件.西昌地震区与云龙地震区已经历两个完整的孕育周期,未来分别有大震与强震事件发生.下关-楚雄地震区已经历三个完整的孕育周期,目前处于第四孕育周期主震临震阶段.
Based on the brittle fracture theory of multiple locked sections and the related prediction methods of the seismogenic faults, the geocentric cycles of some strong earthquakes in the southwestern China are defined and the future seismic trends of these seismogenic regions are analyzed. The results show that the Rongshou and Xiaojiang earthquakes The current gestation cycle of the district is not over yet, with major earthquakes and catastrophic events occurring in the future, respectively. The Xianshuihe seismic zone and the Sino-Burmese border seismic zone 1 have undergone a complete gestation cycle. In the future, large and giant earthquakes and strong earthquakes Event occurred.Zhaotong earthquake zone has undergone a complete incubation period, if the actual magnitude of the Ludian earthquake in 2014 is not less than MS6.1, it is the second earthquake period of the main earthquake event.Xichang earthquake area and the Yunlong earthquake area has experienced Two complete gestation cycles and major earthquakes in the future respectively occur.The Xiaguan-Chuxiong earthquake zone has undergone three complete gestation cycles, and is currently in the midst of the main shock of the fourth gestation cycle.