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目的了解成都市手足口病与气象因素的关系和不同发病水平的气象特征。方法从气象部门收集成都市2011-2013年的气象资料,分析气象因素与手足口病周发病数相关性,以2011-2013年手足口病周发病数P75和P25将手足口病周发病数划分为3个等级,比较在不同发病水平下的气象因素特征差异,并做手足口病发病水平影响因素的logistic回归。结果手足口病发病数与平均气温、平均降水量呈显著性正相关,相关系数分别为0.33、0.21(P<0.05);与平均气压呈显著性负相关,相关系数为-0.26(P<0.01),高发病数的周次较其他发病水平周次具有气压较低、气温较高、降水量适中的特点,以手足口病发病水平为因变量,气象因素为自变量建立logistic回归模型,结果显示气象因素中仅有气温在模型中具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论成都市气象因素与手足口病发病有一定的相关性,气象因素中气温对手足口病发病影响更明显。
Objective To understand the relationship between hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Chengdu and the meteorological characteristics of different incidence levels. Methods The meteorological data of Chengdu from 2011 to 2013 were collected from meteorological department. The correlation between meteorological factors and the number of HFMD was analyzed. The incidence of HFMD in 2011-2013 was divided by the incidence of HFMD (P75 and P25) The results showed that there were significant differences in the meteorological factors at different levels of incidence and the logistic regression of influencing factors on the incidence of HFMD. Results The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease was significantly and positively correlated with mean air temperature and average precipitation. The correlation coefficients were 0.33,0.21 (P <0.05), and negatively correlated with mean air pressure. The correlation coefficient was -0.26 (P <0.01) ), The incidence of weeks of high incidence than other levels of the week with low air pressure, high temperature, moderate precipitation characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease incidence as a dependent variable, meteorological factors as independent variables to establish a logistic regression model, the results Meteorological factors show only the temperature in the model was statistically significant (P <0.05). Conclusion The meteorological factors in Chengdu are related to the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease. The temperature in meteorological factors has more significant effect on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease.