由于自然风险、市场波动和社会不确定性等因素的存在,理性农户是追求效用最大化的。农户为了规避风险往往选择边际产品价值高于边际成本的生产决策,资源没有达到最优利用,利润没有实现最大化,这将导致粮食产量波动、效率损失、社会差距拉大等负面效应。最后,从政府、金融机构、商业保险与农产品期货市场等方面提出了相关政策建议。 Due to the existence of natural risks, market volatility and social uncertainty, rational farmers are pursuing utility maximization. In order to avoid risks, farmers often choose to make production decisions whose marginal product value is higher than their marginal cost. Resources are not optimally utilized and profits are not maximized. This will lead to negative effects such as fluctuations in grain output, loss of efficiency and widened social gaps. Finally, some policy recommendations are put forward from the government, financial institutions, commercial insurance and agricultural futures markets.