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我国当下是否存在较为严重的股市泡沫?我国经济到底会不会重复日本上世纪90年代的道路?我国经济是否存在潜在的经济危机?我国经济能否持续和稳定的增长?这些都是亟待解决的问题。本文运用DEA包络模型对经济增长进行了:“规模扩大”——“效率增进”——“自主创新”的阶段划分,并从实证角度探求出我国存在类东亚危机,但与东亚危机产生的机理又有不同之处。在此基础上提出克服危机的相关建议。
Is there a serious stock market bubble in our country? Will the economy of our country repeat the 1990s in Japan? Will there be a potential economic crisis in our economy? Will the economy continue to grow steadily? These are the problems to be solved urgently . In this paper, we use DEA envelopment model to analyze the stages of economic growth: stage of “scale expansion” - “efficiency improvement” - “independent innovation”, and explore the existence of East Asian crisis in our country from an empirical perspective, However, there are differences in the mechanism of crisis in East Asia. On this basis, we put forward suggestions on how to overcome the crisis.