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为了解决电动汽车规模预测缺乏历史数据和专业方法的问题,本文采用系统动力学的方法,通过系统分析影响电动汽车发展的各类因素及其相关关系,建立电动汽车规模预测的系统动力学模型。仿真分析了电动汽车的发展趋势,并通过敏感度效验分析了“示范推广—快速增长—平稳发展”阶段中重要影响因素。仿真分析发现:电动汽车规模将在未来呈现快速增长;电动汽车购买率则出现“S”型增长曲线,前期变化主要受政府政策影响,后期技术发展和基础设施建设将成为影响电动汽车发展的重要因素。
In order to solve the problem of the lack of historical data and professional methods for electric vehicle scale forecasting, this paper uses system dynamics method to systematically analyze various factors affecting electric vehicle development and their correlations, and establish a system dynamics model of electric vehicle scale forecasting. The trend of EV development is simulated and analyzed, and the key influencing factors in the stage of “demonstration promotion - rapid growth - steady development” are analyzed through the sensitivity test. The simulation analysis shows that the scale of electric vehicles will grow rapidly in the future; the purchase rate of electric vehicles will show a growth curve of “S” type. The changes in the previous periods are mainly influenced by the government policies. The latter part of the development of technology and infrastructure will be the impact on the development of electric vehicles The important factor.