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在特定条件下实施泄流补偿调度可增加梯级水电站的发电效益,但来水预报误差可能会造成龙头补偿水库的水头和水量损失,定量评估泄流补偿调度的风险,对泄流补偿决策具有重要意义。以补偿期和回蓄期来水预报误差为风险因子,给出了小流量泄流补偿的风险结构和预报来水的概率描述;建立了小流量泄流补偿风险决策树和补偿期末及回蓄期末水位的计算方法;提出了补偿期和回蓄期风险及两阶段组合风险的定量计算方法;构建了基于期望回蓄水位和可接受风险的小流量泄流补偿决策流程。实例表明,所提出的方法具有较好的辅助决策作用。
The discharge compensation scheduling under certain conditions can increase the power generation efficiency of cascaded hydropower stations. However, the prediction error of incoming water may cause head and water loss of the reservoirs, and quantitatively evaluate the risk of discharge compensation scheduling, which is important for the decision of discharge compensation significance. Based on the risk factors of compensating period and return earning water forecasting error, the risk structure of low-flow discharge compensation and the probability description of incoming water are given. The risk-shedding risk decision tree with small discharge and the compensation period and recharge The calculation method of the water level at the end of the period is put forward; the calculation methods of the compensation period and the return period risk and the combination risk of the two phases are proposed; and the decision-making flow of the small-flow discharge compensation based on the expected recharge level and the acceptable risk is constructed. The example shows that the proposed method has better decision support role.