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经验研究揭示,在金融扩张条件下,样本期内流动性和经济增长存在显著的周期性波动特征,其中流动性的短周期波动和长周期波动均滞后于经济增长短周期波动和长周期波动,同时经济增长可以Granger引起流动性,因此在一定程度上表明经济增长的周期性波动是流动性周期性波动的根源,同时金融扩张也是流动性产生的Granger原因,金融扩张和经济增长均形成对流动性短期冲击效应,但二者对流动性的冲击效应相反。
Empirical studies reveal that under the conditions of financial expansion, there is a significant cyclical fluctuation in liquidity and economic growth during the sample period. Both short-period volatility and long-period volatility of liquidity lagged behind short-period and long-period fluctuations of economic growth. At the same time, economic growth can cause liquidity by Granger. Therefore, to some extent, the cyclical fluctuation of economic growth is the source of cyclical fluctuations in liquidity. Meanwhile, financial expansion is also the Granger cause of liquidity, and both financial expansion and economic growth are flowing Short-term impact of the impact, but the impact of liquidity on the contrary.