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Thirty-five years after the United States and China established formal diplomatic ties， could the world have imagined that a group of leading diplomats and financial leaders would ring the opening bell of the New York Stock Exchange （NYSE）， celebrating the unprecedented economic growth and trajectory of the Chinese economy and its importance to the United States？ The past three decades have been truly astounding to China watchers， and leading forecasters project a continued growth rate of 7 percent to 8 percent this year.
A “dual-track” approach of transitional subsidies and market liberalization has “allowed China to achieve， on the average， 9.7 percent growth rate continuously for 35 years； it’s a miracle in human history，” said Justin Yifu Lin， former World Bank senior vice president and chief economist， in a keynote address at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations’2014 economic forecast event on January 6.“We have never observed such a long sustained period of high growth in any country at any time in any part of the world.”
NYSE Euronext CEO Duncan Niederauer welcomed guests， committee representatives and members of the China Center for Economic Research （CCER） to the economic forecast， saying “2013 was a pretty exciting year and I’m sure 2014 will be more of the same，”adding that investor interest in the offerings of Chinese listings on the NYSE is on the rebound.
To note the anniversary of the establishment of formal ties， and the fifth annual forecast event， Stephen A. Orlins， President of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations， joined China’s UN representative Liu Jieyi， Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai and Lin to ring the opening bell for the NYSE.
Roadmap for growth
“It’s fair to say that none of us foresaw what China’s economic development would be [like] and that China would be one of the defining forces of the 21st century，” said Orlins. “Today， 35 years later [after the establishment of diplomatic relations]， China stands at another crossroads. The November communiqué of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has laid out an extraordinary reform agenda. The implementation of that agenda will determine the future of China and the future of the U.S.-China relationship.”
The third plenary session was ambitious and visionary， said Yao Yang， Dean of the National School of Development （NSD） at Peking University and Director of the CCER. The world is changing fast， and China is changing at an even greater pace， from a closed country to the most important contributor to global economic growth. The communiqué is comprehensive， with deeper reforms in political and social realms in addition to economic policy， said Qin xiao， Chairman of the Boyuan Foundation and former Chairman of China Merchants Group.
“We cannot rely purely on economic reform for social progress，” Qin said.
Over the next seven years， two distinctive features will emerge to affect investment opportunities in China， predicted Huang Yiping， Deputy Dean of the NSD. For one， reform will be driven by top authorities， rather than the traditional “bottom-up” approach—a policy that became known as “crossing the river by touching the stones.” Reforms to the farming system in the 1980s， for example， were initiated by farmers themselves before being adopted at large by the state.
Now， there “are no more stones to be touched，” Huang said， in areas such as marketoriented reforms， and a top-level authority is important. Reform also faces increasing resistance from special interest groups， he said， and strong backing from the national leadership will help to overcome the growing pains that change naturally incurs.
“The second very important feature of the reform program is to complete the transition of the Chinese economy to a market system. The single most important sentence in the whole document， to me， is the following—Wherever the market mechanism works in allocating resources， the government should never intervene，” Huang said. “That really is a fundamental change in the approach of the government and the market should work together. Obviously， that does not mean the government would no longer be proactive. It will continue to play an active role in overcoming market failures.”
A full market system in China， forecast to be the largest economy in the world and probably the world’s most vibrant consumer economy， can be expected by around 2020， Huang said.
“We are in the last leg of the transition of the Chinese economy to the market system and we’re about to jump over the middle-income trap，” he said. The problems in income disparity and growth imbalances are being overcome with the changes to the growth model.
As growth becomes more balanced， wages for the working class will rise， the workforce will shrink and the pace of GDP growth will continue to decelerate， Huang said， because the market is maturing. More volatile cycles of growth and cooling-off periods can be expected， which is a natural characteristic of a market-based economy. In fact， China’s economy narrowly missed expectations for growth to hit 14-year lows in 2013， according to the latest economic reports from the National Bureau of Statistics. Full-year growth in 2013 was 7.7 percent， steady from 2012 and just slightly above market expectations for a 7.6-percent expansion， which would have been the slowest since 1999. While a 7.7-percent growth rate is not small potatoes， it’s a far cry from the double-digit growth rates that have propelled the country into the world’s secondlargest economy over the past 30 years.
New structure
With the implementation of the third plenum and the completion of migrating China’s economic structure to a market-based economy， the future of the country will be closely aligned to its competitive advantages， said former World Bank chief economist Lin. For now， that means the economy is currently tied to China’s advantages in low-cost labor， but a few years from now the Chinese economic structure will move toward more capital- and technology-intensive drivers.
The balance of state support and gradual liberalization has enabled China to maintain an average growth rate of 9.7 percent since the re- form and opening up. Three decades ago， percapita GDP for Chinese citizens was one-third the average of per-capita GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa—now， it is a “miracle” story of prosperity， Lin said. Per-capita GDP is around $7，000 in China now， and 600 million people have been lifted out of poverty.
“The decision to let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation and price determination will eliminate distortions. The growth in China will be more harmonious and income disparity will be mitigated. The growth will be more consistent with its competitive advantages，” Lin said.
When deceleration of China’s growth began to appear， many blamed intrinsic problems such as corruption， but the main reasons for the slowdown were due to external factors， he said. Exports have slowed with the global slowdown and international investment has cooled， leaving domestic consumption as the main driver for the national economy.
“Since the deceleration was due to external factors， China will turn to growth from domestic sources. I’m quite sure China has the ability to do that，” Lin said. “The potential for investment is very large.”
Despite China’s national debt， the country maintains a savings rate of 50 percent and has$3.82 trillion on foreign exchange reserve. “You put those conditions together and I’m sure China will be able to easily maintain a growth rate between 7.5 to 8 percent in the coming few years，” he added. In fact， an 8-percent growth rate can be expected for the coming two decades， Lin forecast， if China’s competitive advantages continue to be developed. China’s growth is good for the world and the massive potential of the country’s enormous consumer base could propel the world into a golden age of widespread wealth.
Economic factors
On the macroeconomic level， Lu Feng， NSD professor and Director of the China Macroeconomic Research Center， said the growth pattern of China has been recently shaped by the global slowdown， overleveraged and excessive debt， environmental pressures and sluggish external markets.
While overall debt is still reasonable， the rate at which it has accumulated is too fast， Lu warned. “The current debt level is manageable， but the growth rate over the past couple of years is not，” he said.
Despite this， Lu predicts growth of 7.5 percent to 8 percent in real terms in 2014， with a steady rate of 9 percent to 10 percent in nominal terms.
“China will maintain its status as the world’s biggest growth contributor to the global economy，” he said. “Last year， incremental growth of China’s GDP measured in U.S. dollars is something like $950 billion， which is equivalent to approximately 30 percent of estimated global economic growth.”
Global investors are becoming more supportive of Chinese opportunities， said Huang Haizhou， Managing Director of the China International Capital Corp.， with indications of a global synchronized recovery in 2014.
Shadow banking continues to play a significant role in China’s economic rise， said Sun Mingchun， chief economist of China Broad Capital， preying on the increased need for funding—however that may not be a bad thing.
“We have to develop a multilayer capital market， a multi-channel financial system in China； we have to allow certain systems to grow，” Sun said. “That’s why I would say shadow banking is not a vicious thing. Some people think of shadow banking in a negative way. I think we need to have more financial channels. The economy cannot rely too much on bank loans. On the other hand， we need to develop a bond market as soon as possible.”
A “dual-track” approach of transitional subsidies and market liberalization has “allowed China to achieve， on the average， 9.7 percent growth rate continuously for 35 years； it’s a miracle in human history，” said Justin Yifu Lin， former World Bank senior vice president and chief economist， in a keynote address at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations’2014 economic forecast event on January 6.“We have never observed such a long sustained period of high growth in any country at any time in any part of the world.”
NYSE Euronext CEO Duncan Niederauer welcomed guests， committee representatives and members of the China Center for Economic Research （CCER） to the economic forecast， saying “2013 was a pretty exciting year and I’m sure 2014 will be more of the same，”adding that investor interest in the offerings of Chinese listings on the NYSE is on the rebound.
To note the anniversary of the establishment of formal ties， and the fifth annual forecast event， Stephen A. Orlins， President of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations， joined China’s UN representative Liu Jieyi， Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai and Lin to ring the opening bell for the NYSE.
Roadmap for growth
“It’s fair to say that none of us foresaw what China’s economic development would be [like] and that China would be one of the defining forces of the 21st century，” said Orlins. “Today， 35 years later [after the establishment of diplomatic relations]， China stands at another crossroads. The November communiqué of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has laid out an extraordinary reform agenda. The implementation of that agenda will determine the future of China and the future of the U.S.-China relationship.”
The third plenary session was ambitious and visionary， said Yao Yang， Dean of the National School of Development （NSD） at Peking University and Director of the CCER. The world is changing fast， and China is changing at an even greater pace， from a closed country to the most important contributor to global economic growth. The communiqué is comprehensive， with deeper reforms in political and social realms in addition to economic policy， said Qin xiao， Chairman of the Boyuan Foundation and former Chairman of China Merchants Group.
“We cannot rely purely on economic reform for social progress，” Qin said.
Over the next seven years， two distinctive features will emerge to affect investment opportunities in China， predicted Huang Yiping， Deputy Dean of the NSD. For one， reform will be driven by top authorities， rather than the traditional “bottom-up” approach—a policy that became known as “crossing the river by touching the stones.” Reforms to the farming system in the 1980s， for example， were initiated by farmers themselves before being adopted at large by the state.
Now， there “are no more stones to be touched，” Huang said， in areas such as marketoriented reforms， and a top-level authority is important. Reform also faces increasing resistance from special interest groups， he said， and strong backing from the national leadership will help to overcome the growing pains that change naturally incurs.
“The second very important feature of the reform program is to complete the transition of the Chinese economy to a market system. The single most important sentence in the whole document， to me， is the following—Wherever the market mechanism works in allocating resources， the government should never intervene，” Huang said. “That really is a fundamental change in the approach of the government and the market should work together. Obviously， that does not mean the government would no longer be proactive. It will continue to play an active role in overcoming market failures.”
A full market system in China， forecast to be the largest economy in the world and probably the world’s most vibrant consumer economy， can be expected by around 2020， Huang said.
“We are in the last leg of the transition of the Chinese economy to the market system and we’re about to jump over the middle-income trap，” he said. The problems in income disparity and growth imbalances are being overcome with the changes to the growth model.
As growth becomes more balanced， wages for the working class will rise， the workforce will shrink and the pace of GDP growth will continue to decelerate， Huang said， because the market is maturing. More volatile cycles of growth and cooling-off periods can be expected， which is a natural characteristic of a market-based economy. In fact， China’s economy narrowly missed expectations for growth to hit 14-year lows in 2013， according to the latest economic reports from the National Bureau of Statistics. Full-year growth in 2013 was 7.7 percent， steady from 2012 and just slightly above market expectations for a 7.6-percent expansion， which would have been the slowest since 1999. While a 7.7-percent growth rate is not small potatoes， it’s a far cry from the double-digit growth rates that have propelled the country into the world’s secondlargest economy over the past 30 years.
New structure
With the implementation of the third plenum and the completion of migrating China’s economic structure to a market-based economy， the future of the country will be closely aligned to its competitive advantages， said former World Bank chief economist Lin. For now， that means the economy is currently tied to China’s advantages in low-cost labor， but a few years from now the Chinese economic structure will move toward more capital- and technology-intensive drivers.
The balance of state support and gradual liberalization has enabled China to maintain an average growth rate of 9.7 percent since the re- form and opening up. Three decades ago， percapita GDP for Chinese citizens was one-third the average of per-capita GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa—now， it is a “miracle” story of prosperity， Lin said. Per-capita GDP is around $7，000 in China now， and 600 million people have been lifted out of poverty.
“The decision to let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation and price determination will eliminate distortions. The growth in China will be more harmonious and income disparity will be mitigated. The growth will be more consistent with its competitive advantages，” Lin said.
When deceleration of China’s growth began to appear， many blamed intrinsic problems such as corruption， but the main reasons for the slowdown were due to external factors， he said. Exports have slowed with the global slowdown and international investment has cooled， leaving domestic consumption as the main driver for the national economy.
“Since the deceleration was due to external factors， China will turn to growth from domestic sources. I’m quite sure China has the ability to do that，” Lin said. “The potential for investment is very large.”
Despite China’s national debt， the country maintains a savings rate of 50 percent and has$3.82 trillion on foreign exchange reserve. “You put those conditions together and I’m sure China will be able to easily maintain a growth rate between 7.5 to 8 percent in the coming few years，” he added. In fact， an 8-percent growth rate can be expected for the coming two decades， Lin forecast， if China’s competitive advantages continue to be developed. China’s growth is good for the world and the massive potential of the country’s enormous consumer base could propel the world into a golden age of widespread wealth.
Economic factors
On the macroeconomic level， Lu Feng， NSD professor and Director of the China Macroeconomic Research Center， said the growth pattern of China has been recently shaped by the global slowdown， overleveraged and excessive debt， environmental pressures and sluggish external markets.
While overall debt is still reasonable， the rate at which it has accumulated is too fast， Lu warned. “The current debt level is manageable， but the growth rate over the past couple of years is not，” he said.
Despite this， Lu predicts growth of 7.5 percent to 8 percent in real terms in 2014， with a steady rate of 9 percent to 10 percent in nominal terms.
“China will maintain its status as the world’s biggest growth contributor to the global economy，” he said. “Last year， incremental growth of China’s GDP measured in U.S. dollars is something like $950 billion， which is equivalent to approximately 30 percent of estimated global economic growth.”
Global investors are becoming more supportive of Chinese opportunities， said Huang Haizhou， Managing Director of the China International Capital Corp.， with indications of a global synchronized recovery in 2014.
Shadow banking continues to play a significant role in China’s economic rise， said Sun Mingchun， chief economist of China Broad Capital， preying on the increased need for funding—however that may not be a bad thing.
“We have to develop a multilayer capital market， a multi-channel financial system in China； we have to allow certain systems to grow，” Sun said. “That’s why I would say shadow banking is not a vicious thing. Some people think of shadow banking in a negative way. I think we need to have more financial channels. The economy cannot rely too much on bank loans. On the other hand， we need to develop a bond market as soon as possible.”