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利用中国消费品价格变动的微观数据,采用生存分析方法对中国物价变动特征进行了研究,推导出了价格粘性的基准模型,分别给出了参数估计和非参数描述的价格粘性值,研究结果表明中国七类主要食品的价格持续时间为2.3~5.6周,平均变动时间为1.36个月,与其他国家的研究结果比较,价格调整的频率更高。此外,还从季度和地区的角度,分别分析了中国微观物价变动的季节性和地区性变动特征,为政府的价格管理和预测提供了有价值的启示。
Using the microcosmic data of China’s consumer goods price changes, this paper uses the survival analysis method to study the characteristics of the price changes in China, and deduces the benchmark model of price stickiness. The price viscous values of parameter estimation and non-parametric description are given respectively. The results show that China The prices of the seven main types of foodstuffs ranged from 2.3 to 5.6 weeks, with an average change of 1.36 months. Compared with the results of other countries, the price adjustment was more frequent. In addition, the quarterly and regional perspectives are also used to analyze the seasonal and regional changes of micro-price changes in China, which provide valuable enlightenment for the government’s price management and forecasting.