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地面沉降是城市主要地质灾害之一,天津市尤为严重。从地面沉降风险角度出发,运用AHP模糊综合评判法,对天津市地面沉降风险进行分析研究。在纵览前人研究基础上,结合自然灾害风险分析理论和天津市实际状况,建立天津市地面沉降风险评价指标体系,该指标体系由5个一级指标和18个二级指标组成。运用层次分析法确定指标相对权重,并选取5组不同权重集进行敏感度分析,以减少主观因素造成的判断误差。由于最大隶属度原则本身不足,采用加权平均法处理评判结果,得到风险综合指数,将5组风险综合指数求平均,进行最终评价。结果表明,天津市地面沉降风险水平在中等和较高之间,更偏向于较高。这与实际情况基本吻合,将该方法用于天津市地面沉降风险分析,可为防灾减灾提供科学依据。
Land subsidence is one of the major geological disasters in the city, and Tianjin is especially serious. From the perspective of land subsidence risk, AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to analyze the land subsidence risk in Tianjin. On the basis of a review of previous studies, combined with the theory of natural disaster risk analysis and the actual status of Tianjin, this paper establishes a land subsidence risk assessment index system in Tianjin. The index system consists of five first-level indicators and 18 second-level indicators. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to determine the relative weight of indicators, and five different weight sets are selected for sensitivity analysis to reduce the judgment error caused by subjective factors. Because the principle of maximum membership is not enough, the weighted average method is adopted to process the judgment results to get the risk composite index, and the five composite risk indexes are averaged for final evaluation. The results show that the land subsidence risk level in Tianjin is between medium and high, and more biased towards higher. This is in good agreement with the actual situation. This method can be used to analyze the land subsidence risk in Tianjin and provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation.