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本文分析了2011年我国宏观经济运行的特点,提出有两大因素将影响2012年我国宏观经济增长,一是外部经济环境的恶化,二是国内金融市场环境的内生性紧缩。宏观经济将会继续调整,2012年国内生产总值(GDP)增长预计会降至9%以下,但通胀形势将会明显好转,消费物价指数(CPI)增长将回落到3%左右的合理区间。文章强调,要正确地看待我国宏观经济的调整。宏观经济进入调整型增长期,是一种内在发展要求,关键是要在调整型增长期中解决长期结构性矛盾,加快我国经济结构的战略性调整,并提出宏观经济政策总基调和具体建议。
This paper analyzes the characteristics of China’s macroeconomic performance in 2011 and proposes two major factors that will affect China’s macroeconomic growth in 2012: first, the deterioration of the external economic environment; second, the endogenous tightening of the domestic financial market environment. The macroeconomy will continue to be adjusted. The GDP growth in 2012 is expected to drop below 9%. However, the inflation situation will be markedly improved. The consumer price index (CPI) growth will fall to a reasonable range of 3%. The article emphasizes that we must correctly view the adjustment of China’s macro-economy. The key to macroeconomic adjustment in the period of adjustment and growth is an inherent requirement for development. The key is to solve long-term structural contradictions in the period of adjustment and growth, speed up the strategic adjustment of China’s economic structure and put forward the general tone and concrete proposals for macroeconomic policies.