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采用1998~2014年HS6位数的产品编码数据,考察中国对美国制造业产品出口贸易关系的持续时间,分析结果表明:中国对美国制造业产品出口贸易持续时间的均值为4.38年,中位数为3年。运用离散时间Probit、Logit和Cloglog模型,分析影响制造业产品出口贸易关系持续时间的决定因素,3个模型的分析结果均表明:美国经济发展、制造业产品出口贸易规模及其重要程度、差异化产品等因素,均对出口贸易关系持续时间具有显著的正向影响,但单位产品价值越高的出口产品,其贸易关系持续时间越短。
Using the product code data of HS6 digits from 1998 to 2014, the paper examines the duration of the export trade relations between China and the U.S. manufacturing industry. The analysis shows that the mean duration of the export trade between China and the U.S. manufacturing industry is 4.38 years, the median For 3 years. Using the discrete-time Probit, Logit and Cloglog models to analyze the determinants of the duration of the export trade relations in manufacturing products, the results of the three models show that the development of the U.S. economy, the size and importance of the export of manufacturing products are differentiated Product and other factors have a significant positive impact on the duration of the export trade relations. However, the export product whose unit product value is higher has a shorter duration of trade relations.