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随着发电侧区域电力市场的构建基本完成并试点运行,对于参与其中的发电商来说需要更为实用的竞价策略。提出一种对发电商具有实用性的考虑报价经验的竞价策略模型,并阐述此模型的4个关键问题:寻找理想的报价点,通过模拟市场出清法和估计竞争对手报价来实现;形成主观概率判断及对理想报价点进行风险分段;求出最优竞价电量;对形成的初始概率估计进行调整。通过中标概率主观判断的概念把历史报价的经验引入到竞价策略模型中,并通过主观概率判断的演进实现对初始概率判断的调整从而实现发电商的经验报价趋近于真实值,在东北区域电力市场初期年度第一轮竞价交易中,算例结果验证了该方法的实用性和有效性。
With the construction of the electricity market in the power generation area basically completed and piloted, a more practical bidding strategy is needed for the participating power producers. A bidding strategy model that has practical experience for bidders is proposed. Four key issues of the model are discussed: finding the ideal bidding point, simulating the market clearing method and estimating the competitor’s bidding price, and forming the subjective Probabilistic judgment and risk segmentation for the ideal bidding price; find the optimal bidding price; and adjust the initial probability estimate formed. Through the concept of subjective judgment of winning probability, the experience of historical quotation is introduced into the bidding strategy model, and the adjustment of initial probability judgment is realized through the evolution of subjective probability judgment so that the empirical quotation of power producer approaches the true value. In the northeast region, In the initial round of the market during the first round of bidding, the result of the example verifies the practicability and effectiveness of the method.