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工业化与城镇化是节能降耗的关键。文章利用2004—2013年新疆15个地州市面板数据,建立静态面板及动态面板模型,实证分析了工业化、城镇化对能源强度的影响。结果显示:(1)能源强度存在显著的累积效应与路径依赖,工业化水平提升有助于降低能源利用强度,在天山北部地区尤为显著;(2)城镇化进程中基础设施、交通运输的建设投入在短期内更多地体现为能源消耗规模迅速扩大,长期可能存在的集聚效应进而降低单位能耗的机制尚未发挥;(3)通过长期城镇化发展形成的集聚效应促进经济发展水平提升,进而降低能源强度的路径存在,且作用效果大于通过工业化发展促进经济水平提升进而降低能源强度这一路径。在此基础上,提出相应的建议。
Industrialization and urbanization are the keys to saving energy and reducing consumption. Based on the panel data of 15 prefectures and prefectures in Xinjiang from 2004 to 2013, the paper builds static panel and dynamic panel model, and empirically analyzes the impact of industrialization and urbanization on energy intensity. The results show that: (1) There is a significant cumulative effect and path dependence on energy intensity, and the enhancement of industrialization helps to reduce the intensity of energy use, especially in the northern part of Tianshan. (2) Investment in the construction of infrastructure and transport in the process of urbanization In the short term, it is more reflected in the fact that the mechanism of rapid expansion of energy consumption scale and possible long-term agglomeration effect and thus reduction of unit energy consumption has not yet been demonstrated. (3) The agglomeration effect of long-term urbanization promotes the improvement of economic development level, The path of energy intensity exists, and the effect is greater than the path of accelerating economic development and thus reducing energy intensity through industrialization. On this basis, put forward corresponding suggestions.