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20世纪后期的民主化浪潮使大多数研究者只关注政治变迁的外因性解释,而不虑及政治变迁的内在性因素。本文对发生民主化转型前夕的新权威主义政权作了剖析,指出新权威主义政权发生民主化转型的根本原因在于政权内部的专制结构与同意结构之间的张力。由行政首脑、军队、官僚和执政党组成的专制结构与由立法机关、利益集团、公共舆论和社会运动组成的同意结构之间存在的张力随现代化发展而逐渐转化为危机。这一危机在外部因素的点燃下上演了一场世界性的民主化运动。
The wave of democratization in the late twentieth century led most researchers to focus solely on exogenous explanations of political change without regard to the inherent factors of political change. This article analyzes the new authoritarian regime on the eve of the democratization transition and points out that the fundamental reason for the democratization of the new authoritarian regime lies in the tension between the authoritarian structure and the consent structure in the regime. The tensions between the authoritarian structures composed of chiefs, armies, bureaucrats and ruling parties and the consensual structure of legislatures, interest groups, public opinion and social movements have gradually transformed into crises with the development of modernization. The crisis staged a world-wide democratization movement under the influence of external factors.