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本文采用两个进出口相似性指数EIS及COS指数来衡量我国商品结构,分析基于SITC一位数和两位数分类商品的结构特点,结果显示我国与发达国家的进出口相似性普遍高于与发展中国家的进出口相似性,且商品分类越细化,相似性程度越低;同时,将EIS与COS指数分别引入引力模型考察我国商品结构与双边贸易流量的关系,实证结果显示,商品结构对双边贸易流量具有统计上显著为正的影响作用,成为仅次于出口国收入水平和人口规模的重要解释变量,而且对于我国而言,COS指数的解释能力比EIS指数更强。
In this paper, two import and export similarity index EIS and COS index to measure the structure of China’s goods, analysis based on SITC one-digit and two-digit classification of the structural characteristics of the goods, the results show that China and developed countries generally higher import and export similarities and In the meantime, introducing the EIS and COS index into the gravity model to examine the relationship between the commodity structure and the bilateral trade flow in our country, the empirical results show that the commodity structure Has a statistically significant and positive impact on bilateral trade flows and becomes an important explanatory variable after the exporters’ income level and population size. For our country, the COS index is more capable of explaining than the EIS index.