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在经历了“黄金十年”高速扩张之后,中国房地产业到了好好反思的时候。2008年,中国房地产业遭遇了太多的转折。2008年,房地产业政策完成了从控通胀到保增长的巨变。以9月份为界,几乎可以分为上下两部分。前半部分持续收紧,成通胀调控常态;后半部分连续降息,政策风向明显转变。2008年,房地产市场可谓跌宕起伏。从1月市场热议王石“拐点论”起,从万科带头降价起,房价只涨不跌的神话便被打破。随着民生住房理念的确立,长达十年商品房一统天下的市场格局正在瓦解,一个政策性住房与商品房市场双轨并行,“低端有保障、中端有支持、高端有市场”的多层次住房体系正日益清晰。随着房地产市场由投资为主导到以消费为主导的转变,房地产开发模式亦将面临巨变,一个理性、全新的市场便在重新开始塑造。因此,“不要和趋势作对”。2008年的土地市场,以多宗地块流拍而匆忙收场。众多开发商,为2007年的疯狂拿地付出了代价。2008年的表现是一种回归理性的表现。土地的拥有量应该和开发相适应,地方政府过度依靠“土地财政”的模式应该改变。2008年,各种金融创新的呼声和实验也风起云涌。对于房地产企业而言,最不应该的表现:在市场旺盛时,开发商盲目扩张、大搞掠夺式经营。对于金融行业而言,要减少金融干预和扶持,对国际资本市场实施监测预警。开发商一定要有断臂求全的勇气,维持生命。2008年,北京二手房交易业取代一手楼市的霸主地位。许多的房地产中介公司不得不收缩业务,但事实表明,选择在2008年进行战略调整与适度扩张更是明智之举。记得达尔文的一句话:“最后生存下来的物种既不是最强大的,也不是最聪明的,而是那些最适应变化的。”毕竟,只有生存下来才有机会赢得将来。
After experiencing the rapid expansion of the “Golden Years”, China’s real estate industry has got a good reflection. In 2008, China’s real estate industry suffered too many turning points. In 2008, the real estate industry policy has achieved a tremendous change from controlling inflation to maintaining growth. In September as the world, can be divided into almost two parts. The first half continued to tighten, becoming the normal inflation control; the second half of the continuous interest rate cut, the obvious change in the direction of the policy. In 2008, the real estate market can be described as ups and downs. From the market hot in January Wang Shi “inflection point theory ”, from the Vanke take the lead price cuts, the price rise or fall only myth was broken. With the establishment of the concept of livelihood housing, up to 10 years dominate the market structure of commercial real estate is collapsing, a two-way parallel housing and commercial housing market, “low-end security, support in the end, high-end market ” and more Hierarchical housing system is increasingly clear. With the transformation of the real estate market from investment to consumer-led real estate development, the real estate development model will face tremendous changes. A rational and entirely new market will resume its construction. So, “Do not be against the trend.” In 2008, the land market ended in a hurried rush of lots of land. Many developers, for the crazy 2007 to pay the price. The performance of 2008 is a manifestation of the return to rationality. The ownership of land should be adapted to development and the excessive reliance on local government should change the model of “land finance.” In 2008, all kinds of financial innovation voices and experiments surged. For the real estate business, the most should not be the performance: In the market is strong, developers blind expansion, engage in predatory management. For the financial industry, to reduce financial intervention and support, the implementation of monitoring and warning of international capital markets. Developers must have the courage to break the arm, to maintain their lives. In 2008, second-hand housing transactions in Beijing replaced the dominance of the primary property market. Many real estate agencies have had to shrink their business, but the facts show that it is wise to choose to make strategic adjustments and moderate expansion in 2008. Remember Darwin’s words: “The last surviving species is neither the most powerful nor the brightest, but the most adaptable to change.” After all, survival is only a chance to win the future.