论文部分内容阅读
1995年美国经济在颠簸中着陆。美 国联邦储备委员会副主席布林德说,颠簸的程度“足以把打瞌睡的乘客震醒”。 颠簸是今年美国经济运行中一个引人注目的特点,经济增长率如此,其它经济指标也是如此。以年率计算,今年第一季度国内生产总值的实际增长幅度,从去年第四季度的5.1%降到2.7%。其后两个季度的增幅依次为1.3%和4.2%。目前,多数经济学家预计,美国第四季度的增幅又会降到2%左右。从一些重要经济指标来看,在今年前10个月中,工厂耐用品订货和住房建筑开工数量出现6次下降,甚至零售总额和工业生产也出现了4次下降。经济学家卡恩在谈到工业生产从3月份到5月份连续3个月下降时说,这是“非衰退时期的一个非同寻常
The U.S. economy landed in bumpy turbulence in 1995. Brindley, the deputy chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the level of turbulence was “enough to awaken the dozing passengers.” Bumpy is a striking feature of the U.S. economy this year, its economic growth rate, and so are its other economic indicators. On an annual basis, the real growth of gross domestic product in the first quarter of this year dropped to 2.7% from 5.1% in the fourth quarter of last year. The following two quarters of increase followed by 1.3% and 4.2%. At present, most economists predict that the U.S. fourth-quarter growth rate will fall to around 2% again. Judging from some important economic indicators, in the first 10 months of this year, the number of orders for durable goods and housing construction in factories dropped 6 times. Even the total retail sales and industrial production also dropped four times. When talking about the drop in industrial production for three consecutive months from March to May, economist Kahn said it was "an unusual period of non-recession