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在项目规划中引入风险分析似乎会增加水利基础设施工程的造价,影响工程建设的进程,而实际上,引入风险理念可大大节省投资。美国陆军工程师兵团(USACE)将与水利基础设施相关的风险评估分为三类:洪水或地震灾害发生的概率评估,这些灾害发生时水利基础设施运行的概率风险评估,以及洪水导致的可能后果(生命丧失、经济损失、环境影响)的评估。介绍了2005~2013年USACE在水利基础设施(大坝)管理中贯彻风险理念的经验。
The introduction of risk analysis in project planning seems to increase the cost of water infrastructure projects and affect the process of project construction. In fact, the introduction of risk concepts can greatly save investment. USACE divides risk assessments related to water infrastructure into three categories: probabilistic assessments of flood or earthquake disasters, probabilistic risk assessments of the operation of water infrastructure at the time of these disasters, and possible consequences of flooding ( Loss of life, economic loss, environmental impact). Introduced 2005 to 2013 USACE’s experience in implementing risk concepts in water infrastructure (dams) management.