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该文利用排队论建立概率模型，估计出了由于设备软件设计缺陷造成断话的概率，并确定了软件设计缺陷是造成系统断话的主要原因。经采取相应措施后断话率大幅降低（经计算至少减少39．6％），提高了通信网的可靠性和稳定性，是利用概率统计方法分析解决通信网系运行故障的有效尝试。“,”By establishing probability modeling based on Queuing Theory, this article gives an estimate of breakdown probability which is resulted from the designing defects of the equipment software. And it confirms that software＇s designing defects are the main reason of system breakdown. By taking some appropriate measures, we have dramatically reduced the rate of breakdown by 39.6%（according to the calculation）, and improved the reliability and stability of communication network. And it＇s an effective attempt to solve the network malfunction by probability statistics.