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传染病流行的时空传播规律反映了人与传染病斗争博弈的动态过程,深刻认识时空传播规律对于传染病的科学防控与应急管理有重要意义.对2003年北京市的流行病学调查数据进行数字化得到了2321例SARS感染者的时空数据,重现了SARS在北京市流行的时空传播过程,得到了精确到街道办、乡和镇的SARS发病率图,并对结果进行了Bayesian调整和空间平滑,使之更好的反映出SARS传染病在地理空间上的风险分布与趋势;综合运用多种空间分析方法研究了SARS传播的空间模式与时空传播规律,并结合应急防控措施阐述了时空传播背后的驱动因素,评价了不同时期的应急策略对疫情控制的效果.结果表明:(1)SARS传播在西北-东南方向(偏南北向)的扩散速度明显弱于东北-西南方向;(2)SARS传播风险在空间上存在显著正相关,且经历了弱-强-弱的变化过程;(3)在空间上形成了两个高风险传播的热点区域—城市中心地带与东部城郊地带,两个风险区域的形成与演化特征各不相同但相互影响;(4)错失了在3月份将SARS流行消灭在萌芽状态的最佳时机,然而,疫情中后期的应急策略非常有效,不仅阻止了疫情的增长态势,而且有效遏止了其在空间上的扩散.
The epidemic of epidemic of infectious diseases reflects the dynamic process of struggle between human and infectious diseases, and a profound understanding of the laws of space-time transmission is of great significance for the scientific prevention and emergency management of infectious diseases.According to the epidemiological survey data of Beijing in 2003 Digitized the spatiotemporal data of 2321 SARS patients, reproduced the spatiotemporal process of SARS epidemic in Beijing, and got the SARS incidence map accurately to the streets, townships and towns. The result was Bayesian adjusted and space Smooth and make it reflect the risk distribution and trend of SARS epidemic in geospatial space better. The spatial pattern and time-space propagation of SARS are studied synthetically by using a variety of spatial analysis methods, and combined with emergency prevention and control measures, (1) The spread of SARS in the northwest-southeast direction (north-south direction) was significantly weaker than that in the northeast-southwest direction (2) ) There is a significant positive correlation between SARS transmission risks in space, and it has undergone a weak-strong-weak change process. (3) Two spatially high risk transmission (4) The best time to eradicate the SARS epidemic in March is missed, however, the outbreaks of the outbreaks In the latter part of the emergency strategy is very effective, not only stopped the growth of the epidemic, but effectively curbed its spread in space.