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目的探讨水源水质与胃肠道疾病之间的关系,以及胃肠道疾病的发病规律。方法选择淮安市2006年1月至2013年12月间水源水质指标及胃肠道患病例数,并进行相关性分析,然后进行具有输出时延反馈的非线性自回归(NARX)神经网络模型的构建、训练及模拟。结果水源水质的石油类、挥发酚、总砷、总汞、6价铬、氟化物及粪大肠菌群等指标与发病人数有显著的相关性。经过训练后NARX神经网络的可决系数为0.716,拟合效果比较理想。结论水源水质与胃肠道疾病之间存在一定的相关性,基于NARX神经网络对水源水质与胃肠道疾病进行拟合是可行的。
Objective To investigate the relationship between water quality and gastrointestinal diseases and the incidence of gastrointestinal diseases. Methods The water quality index and the number of gastrointestinal tract cases from January 2006 to December 2013 in Huai’an were selected and analyzed. Then, a nonlinear autoregression (NARX) neural network model with output delay feedback Construction, training and simulation. Results There was a significant correlation between the index of water quality of petroleum source, volatile phenol, total arsenic, total mercury, hexavalent chromium, fluoride, fecal coliform and the number of patients. The trained coefficient of NARX neural network is 0.716, and the fitting result is satisfactory. Conclusion There is a certain correlation between water quality and gastrointestinal diseases. Based on NARX neural network, it is feasible to fit water quality and gastrointestinal diseases.